Last month I flew to Ireland to
help my daughter move back from Trinity College in Dublin. Taking advantage
of roads and hotels emptied by the current economic slump, we spent about
two weeks exploring the cities and countryside. The scenic vistas, friendly
pubs, and sites steeped in Celtic and Norman lore tempt one to draft a
travel column. Though a romantic at heart, my economist mind could not help
but observe other aspects of Irish life that provide insight into some of
the policy changes either occurring or proposed here in the United States.
Understanding the
effects of these changes could help officials avoid the bad ones. At a
minimum, such awareness can help the rest of us invest more wisely.
National health
care
Partly due to that famously
damp weather that brings the green hues to the Emerald Isle, my daughter had
cause on a number of occasions to seek medical assistance. As a student in
an Irish institution, her care was “free.” It also was pretty bad.
Appointments were not accepted; she had to wait in long lines to address
items, minor and major.
On one occasion, the office
closed with her and a dozen others still waiting to be seen. She ambled down
the rainy streets to her dorm with a bad fever and severe aches only to get
back in line the next morning. Twice the medicines prescribed were
ineffective; forcing her to queue up again to give whatever random doctor
she saw another stab.
Of course, healthcare is not
free anywhere. Doctors and other staff are paid worldwide. Buildings,
utilities, and materials all entail costs. In Ireland a large portion of the
government budget, and thereby a similarly large part of the huge tax bill,
is for healthcare. Such grandiose masking of costs has stripped providers of
incentives to provide superior service.
There are a number of problems
with our health care system. In a publication with patent and malpractice
lawyers in its readership, I will balk on discussing where our costs exceed
those in other systems. But service availability, proper diagnosis, and
ultimately expenses are not going to improve by reducing or eliminating
competition.
If the folks in Washington,
D.C., decide to move toward a more nationalized health system, I can foresee
the development of a new tier of very profitable health service companies
that will serve the needs of the rich. The majority of firms in the
healthcare industry, however, will suffer. Unfortunately, so too will
patients.
Minimum wage
Wanting to do things locally,
we only ate in Irish restaurants. As here, cuisine and prices varied. Some
had fare in the $15 to $25 range, others in the $15 to $50 range. Many were
in between, but there appeared to be a price floor below which one could not
eat. For information purposes only, I went into a McDonalds. To my surprise,
extra value meals which included one sandwich, one regular fries, and one
medium drink were in the neighborhood of $10 or more.
The main reason that prices on
just about anything cannot fall below certain levels is the high minimum
wage. At 8.65 euro — about $12 at present exchange rates — it is very
difficult to provide low-end products or services and still make a profit.
The equivalent of our dollar stores are “2 Euro” stores — selling $1 worth
of stuff for $2.80. I do not advocate the superiority of any particular
level of spending or quality but the abnormally high minimum wage removes an
entire tier of options.
Looking at the auto-rescue
deals, there is definitely a pro-union bias in the current administration
and congress. If the government directs the minimum wage to rise
inordinately over the next few years, we can expect discount stores, fast
food restaurants, movie theaters and theme parks to suffer. Many will go
bankrupt. Should labor costs rise in all other sectors in reaction to the
minimum wage increases, profitability and productivity throughout the
economy will decline.
Most intelligent observers
recognize labor costs as the main reason why the car industry here has been
a relative failure compared to foreign manufacturers for at least three
decades. Excessive promises of wages and benefits also are killing many
state government budgets, reducing the very services for which governments
were formed and forcing tax increases that hurt everyone. Further mandatory
shifts of resources to labor without merit will only make things worse, yet
such may be on the way regardless.
Gas prices
It is widely known that fuel
prices in Europe are higher than here. We filled at just over a Euro per
liter, or $5.60 per gallon. Since oil trades fairly efficiently in
international markets, the primary determinant of price in Ireland is
taxation, not supply and demand. There is a common consciousness on carbon
fuels among European governments and our current leadership. With
trillion-dollar deficits and a reticence to raise income taxes, increases in
levies on fuel are most probable.
In Ireland, smaller cars,
robust mass transit, and vibrant town centers reduce the amount one spends
on driving. If we do things right, companies involved in infrastructure,
stores in well-situated malls, and automakers emphasizing fuel efficiency
should prosper. If not, a forced increase in fuel costs will only siphon
money from all other activities with no improvement to our energy situation.
Much to learn
After about 28 years of a
rightward tilt, our government is shifting leftward. Regardless of how we
might feel or even openly advocate, big changes lie ahead. There are
countries that already have in place many of the new policies propped by
those newly in charge here. Some of these efforts can lead to positive
change. Others will make things worse. Whether or not we like the changes,
as individuals we can prepare, limit damages, and even profit by recognizing
observable parallels overseas.
There
is much good to learn from the Irish. In Eire, there seems to be a deeper
sense of identity, of connection to the past and the land. Especially within
the Gaelic community, family bonds are strong and nobility is seen in all
work. In the more cosmopolitan areas, economic and cultural vibrancy fueled
by a strong emphasis on education seem to have fostered a new generation
that seems smarter and more involved than the one coming of age here.
In the area of commerce,
I see in Ireland an economy that shows the effects of policies not yet tried
here but currently proposed. It would be great if we could learn from others
— yet we often do not even learn from ourselves. While there is no reason to
get upset, there is every reason in the world to get ready.